Abstract.
The paper looks at how the competition for power between external forces, especially the strategic rivalry between China and the United States, has increased the division of Myanmar’s political landscape after the military coup in February 2021. It discusses how Beijing’s approach, which involves engaging multiple parties, has strengthened and changed Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) in Myanmar’s border regions, which has led to security issues spilling over into India’s Northeastern states. The paper focuses on three main concerns for India: first, the rise of safe havens for insurgents in ungoverned border areas; second, the problems with border management due to the collapse of the Free Movement Regime, the influx of refugees, and narcotics trafficking; and third, the threat to India’s Act East connectivity plans. It argues that India’s security calculus in the Northeast cannot be divorced from the macro-level geopolitical competition playing out in Myanmar and that a coherent response must combine enhanced border infrastructure with sophisticated engagement of non-state actors.
